Methodology

1Odds Collection

Every morning we collect the 1X2 odds of Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange, Betsson and LeoVegas for the 13 competitions we cover, from The Odds API.

2Removing the Margin

Bookmaker odds include a margin. For each bookmaker we convert odds into probabilities and remove it:

• Implied probability = 1 / odds, for home win, draw and away win.
• The three probabilities are scaled so they add up to exactly 100%.
• The result of each bookmaker is averaged into a single consensus.

3The Prediction

The outcome with the highest consensus probability is our prediction. If no bookmaker prices a match, we publish no prediction rather than guess.

4Results and Public Record

After each match we record the final score and whether the prediction was right. The accuracy page shows every competition, won or lost. The match summary (recent form, head-to-head) is calculated automatically from our results archive.